Making definitive conclusions about a player’s talent on such a small sample size, and using non-predictive metrics to make your case, is an inadvisable endeavor. Unfortunately, Smith’s receiving usage in 2018 was forgettable, with a 0.1 Average Target Distance on 32 targets. And understandably so, as McGuire is very clearly behind Le’Veon Bell, whom the Jets are financially incentivized to feed. If Richard does stay with Oakland, there is still room for him to be viable in 2019. Many people are predicting Darren Waller to have a good year as he seems to be the Jared Cook replacement, but I think that is discounting the “safety net” role Richard has become for Carr and we might see Richard take some of the additional targets that Cook’s absence has left vacant. McGuire has only compiled 56 targets in the last 2 seasons, but when considering his 93rd-percentile College Target Share and almost 350 receiving yards per year in college (including 384 receiving yards on 22 targets in his freshman year), his upside as an NFL receiving threat is evident. Making definitive conclusions about a player’s talent on such a small sample size, and using non-predictive metrics to make your case, is an inadvisable endeavor. Richard’s 29.3% Juke Rate also ranked No. McGuire checks other boxes you are looking for in an NFL back, such as the 8th and 20th-highest Juke Rate among running backs in 2017 and 2018. Most importantly, Smith operates in an efficient and high-scoring offense and is the direct backup to a physical runner that will demand a significant workload and that has already suffered three documented concussions and multiple leg injuries. His advanced stats and metrics profile paint a much more optimistic picture. Coincidentally, while working on this article, news has sprouted of a power struggle in New York leading to the potential trade of Bell. There is hope that, with the upgrade at quarterback from Miami to New York, Gase will improve on the lower 1st down pass rate of 47% in 2018. Dynasty’s Child Episode 129: Mocktoberfest! Ito Smith Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile. With the NFL Draft in the books and OTAs in full stride, it’s time to start ranking the players in order to help you prepare for your upcoming season. 39 ranked Juke Rate. All these impressive metrics give a glimpse into Richard’s talent and upside, but opportunity and random circumstance drive running back production more than at any other position. I started off with quarterbacks, but now let’s move to the Running back position. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. Re: Jalen Richard rb Oakland Post by clarion contrarion » Fri Aug 05, 2016 6:44 pm Phaded wrote: People were saying the same thing about Michael Dyer last year - and he was a better prospect than Richard. Smith’s detractors point to poor efficiency (52nd overall in yards per touch) as evidence of his insufficient talent at the NFL level. Smith’s detractors point to poor efficiency (52nd overall in yards per touch) as evidence of his insufficient talent at the NFL level. In 2019, Richard faces far more imposing competition for touches in Jacobs, who holds massive draft capital and a more similar skillset to Richard than other recent Oakland running backs. 15 among qualified NFL running backs, and he will only be 26 years old in the 2019 season. If Richard does stay with Oakland, there is still room for him to be viable in 2019. And he's only 25. Todd Gurley averaged 3.2 yards per carry in his sophomore season. Running backs that enter the NFL as prolific college receivers are found more scarcely than the between-the-tackles compilers. ANALYSIS: The Raiders re-signed Jalen Richard to a two-year, $7 million extension in the offseason. Dynasty Bargain Bin: Jalen Richard. June 3, 2019. Josh Hermsmeyer has explained that air yards is a good indicator of the intent of a coaching staff and quarterback to get the ball in the hands of a receiver. His advanced stats and metrics profile paint a much more optimistic picture. He is very likely the best pure pass catcher in his backfield, and the Oakland receiving core is lacking established target hogs outside of Antonio Brown. Jalen Richard Advanced Receiving Stats via RotoViz Screener. He was even tied for most receptions on his team and third in total receiving yards. Smith carving any sort of role in his rookie season despite weaker draft capital and playing behind a more established running back is still a meaningfully positive indicator. But opting out of some of these cookies may have an effect on your browsing experience. Per PlayerProfiler, Atlanta’s running block efficiency on Ito Smith touches ranked 58th overall in 2018. Oakland’s drafting of Josh Jacobs in the 1st round was a damaging blow to whatever remained of the dynasty value of Jalen Richard. I am not advocating taking Richard in the eighth round, but he has been going in the seventeenth round so depending on your position he could be worth taking late in the sixteenth. 5th round pick. If every team only had two back ups, or four RBs per team, then there would be 48 roostered RBs and even Richard’s less impressive 42nd PPG for running backs is within that range. Though unlikely, Oakland would save $3 million dollars if they cut Richard before June 1, which would provide a potential opportunity for Richard to join a more pass-heavy and/or efficient offense with more immediate opportunity and that will better take advantage of Richard’s services. If a lot of running backs are still on the board, there is no reason to suspect he will be targeted by the majority of managers and you might be able to wait as far as the twentieth. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. I started off with quarterbacks, but now let’s move to the Running back position. Furthermore, his 1.8 average target depth was higher than all running backs with 80 or more targets other than. When sifting through air yards data for running backs, Over the last 30 days, Smith’s dynasty ADP is RB47, behind 2018 non-factors like. Even with such a sizable depth and quantity of targets, Richard still sported an excellent 84% catch rate, No. In a twelve team league with two required starting running backs, at least 24 backs will start every week. A minimum donation of $10 grants you access to a downloadable spreadsheet of TDG’s 2020 Dynasty Baseball Rankings! To further illustrate just how unique and valuable Richard’s receiving usage was in 2018, I used the Rotoviz Screener to filter out all single running back seasons from 2000-2018 with less total targets, receiving expected points and percentage of deep targets than Richard’s 2018, and the list of running backs that remain is a consistent Who’s Who of workhorse studs. Oakland has made improvements to their defense in the draft, added Antonio Brown, and right tackle Trent Brown. He is very likely the best pure pass catcher in his backfield, and the Oakland receiving core is lacking established target hogs outside of. And unlike Drake, who showed little potential in college for NFL workhorse status, Mcguire boasted a 72nd-percentile College Dominator Rating. As mentioned above, opportunity and random circumstance drives running back production more than at any other position. Explained differently, target depth help distinguish between those running backs utilized as downfield threats as receivers and those backs whose targets are mainly checkdowns, which suggests a generally more replaceable skillset based on the advanced stats, metrics, and analytics player profiles. Atlanta saves 3.5 million dollars if, and Atlanta did not draft a running back in a round higher than the 5th in the 2019 draft. 6 posts • Page 1 of 1. georgetown Starter Posts: 675 Joined: Mon May 21, 2012 1:47 am. Richard’s 80 total targets in 2018, ranking 9th overall at running backs, was impressive and surprising, especially considering that Richard had to earn touches in a semi-competitive backfield and Oakland being below league average in 1st down pass rate. Furthermore, his 1.8 average target depth was higher than all running backs with 80 or more targets other than Nyheim Hines, Tarik Cohen, Alvin Kamara and James White. Post by georgetown » Thu May 18, 2017 8:16 pm . You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. MDF Podcast – #6 – 2019 Rookie DE & DT Rankings. Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are as essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. Oakland’s drafting of Josh Jacobs in the 1st round was a damaging blow to whatever remained of the dynasty value of Jalen Richard. These cookies do not store any personal information. TDG Roundtable: Players We Got Wrong In 2020, Jordan’s Research Ramblings: Predictive wOBAcon Soup for the Soul, TDG Roundtable: Players we got right in 2020, Dynasty Deconstructed: Rebuilding a Fantasy Basketball Roster – The Blueprint (Part 2), The Top 500 Dynasty League Players, March 2018, The Top 500 Dynasty League Players, March 2017, The Top 500 Dynasty League Players – July 2017, TDG’s Top 500 Dynasty Rankings March 2020. John Gruden, who has faced plenty of media scrutiny, will likely make it a priority to feed Jacobs this year to justify this pick, similar to what Jacksonville did with Leonard Fournette in his rookie year. Jalen Richard, Raiders. 4 at the position. Dynasty League Football Forum. Jalen Richard - Worth a roster spot? He totaled 123 touches this year for 866 yards. 2020 Dynasty Rookie Rankings; Dynasty Quarterback Rankings; Dynasty Running Back Rankings; Dynasty Wide Receiver Rankings; Dynasty Tight End Rankings; Content. And to reinforce the point made at the beginning of the article, Richard, who has done most of his NFL work as a receiver and who relies on elusivity rather than grinding yards after contact, has been durable, not missing a game in 3 years. On a point per game average he was considerably lower at 42, but let’s do some simple math before we write him off. Also worth noting, Richard had five fewer fumbles in 2018 than in 2017, even though he had 40 more touches. apparel. Running backs that profile as legitimate assets in the passing game are an increasingly valuable commodity for NFL teams: PlayerProfiler’s College Target Share and Average Target Distance will be used to identify which running backs may be values based on their consistent (and in some cases still untapped) receiving usage in college and the NFL, and which running backs may be sells due to their deficiencies as receivers.